Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health estimated that the number of daily Covid-19 infections could reach a hundred thousand if there were no strict measures and preventive controls, reiterating the need to speed up Covid-19 vaccination to more than 4 hundred thousand doses per day. This essentially pours cold water on proposals to legally reopen bars and nightlife or allow a “normal” Songkran festival.
Currently, TPN notes, daily Covid-19 vaccinations have fallen to around 200,000, most being third doses, and vaccination levels in rural provinces are significantly lower than in tourism areas.
The Ministry yesterday, February 28th, revealed the worst-case scenario of the pandemic of Covid-19 in Thailand from March onwards that if no control measures are implemented, there may be up to 100,000 infected people after Songkran or around April 19th. By control measures, the Ministry specifically referred to the closure of entertainment venues and bars, restrictions on events, and other measures.
However, the Ministry stated that if there were preventive control measures, the number could be about 50,000 people. And if the spread was more intensively controlled and the government had accelerated the vaccination process to more than 4 hundred thousand doses per day, the estimated daily infections would be at only 27,000 cases.
In the case of critical patients with pneumonia, if the current measures were still applied, the number could still reach about 3,200 cases during May 3rd – the 5th. But if stricter measures were implemented, the number would be at only 1,000 cases per day. On the contrary, if the measures are relaxed, the number could go up to 6,000 cases. In the case of critical patients on ventilators, if the current measures were still applied, the number could be about 900 cases during May 5th – the 6th versus about 300 currently.
In the case of the fatalities, if the current measures were still in effect, the highest amount of 140 deaths will be found from May 3rd – to the 5th. But if relaxed, the number will be increased to 250. If tightened controls were implemented, the number could only be at about 70 on April 9th.
TPN notes that these are only “predictions” from the Ministry of Public Health, and were not guaranteed or set in stone. However, it does show that the MOPH was suggesting against easing restrictions currently before Songkran and mass travel expected for the festival. TPN also notes, however, that the MOPH is only one voice in the Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) and not the final decision-maker.
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