Canberra, July 25th, 2025 – A satellite data analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Nathan Ruser, has released a detailed analysis suggesting Cambodia bears significant responsibility for escalating the ongoing Thai-Cambodian border conflict. In a post on X accompanied by a heat map, Ruser, known for his work on conflict zones like Ukraine and Myanmar, outlined key developments leading up to the violent clashes on July 24 near the contested Preah Vihear temple area.
Ruser’s analysis of satellite imagery and escalation data reveals a pattern of military buildup he says is primarily initiated by Cambodia. According to his findings, Cambodia was responsible for 33 escalatory events, compared to 14 by Thailand, with only nine joint de-escalatory efforts recorded. The data points to Cambodia’s proactive military preparations well before the May 28 incident, which marked a significant flare-up in tensions.
Key observations from Ruser’s analysis include:
1. **Early Fortifications**: Cambodia constructed and fortified the Phomn Phrasitthi Outpost near the Preah Vihear temple before May 28, indicating premeditated military positioning beyond the previously reported Chong Bok area.
2. **Rapid Response**: Following May 28, Cambodia swiftly deployed elite units, tanks, artillery, and air defense systems to the frontline, suggesting a high level of preparedness for escalation.
3. **Thai Incursion**: On June 19, a Thai company briefly occupied positions inside Cambodia for 90 minutes, signaling that both sides have contributed to the rising tensions, though on a smaller scale.
4. **Border Patrol Confrontation**: On June 30, a large Cambodian patrol blocked a Thai patrol in disputed territory, continuing their advance in what Thailand claims as its own land.
5. **Ammunition Buildup**: In late June, Cambodia transferred significant ammunition stockpiles to the border, raising questions about Thailand’s concurrent preparations, which remain unclear.
6. **Leadership Involvement**: The presence of Hun Sen’s personal royal guard unit commander at the frontline suggests direct involvement by Cambodia’s leadership, with Ruser noting that the escalation appears to be a “Hun Sen-led affair” driven by unclear motives.
The Thai-Cambodian border dispute, centered around the Preah Vihear temple and adjacent areas, has long been a flashpoint for tensions. Ruser’s findings highlight Cambodia’s role in the recent escalation, raising concerns about the potential for further conflict. While both sides have engaged in provocative actions, the analyst’s data shows Cambodia’s strategic preparations as a key driver of the current crisis.
For the original version of this article, please visit The Pattaya News.
