The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) estimates that a hypothetic one-to-three-month lockdown in Thailand could economically lose billions of baht if the Thai government was unable to financially support the country’s worsening economy.
Dr. Thanawat Phonvichai, the university president and economic expert, revealed today, January 7th, that Thailand’s consumer confidence index in December 2020 has dropped for the first time in three months and the overall consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in five months since August 2020.
This is, according to the result, due to consumers’ concerns over the new coronavirus outbreak and concerns over the economic recovery and future unemployment.
With the lowest index number in the past five months, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting of the UTCC expects that consumers would significantly continue to refrain from spending through the first quarter of 2021 until the Coronavirus situation in the country is recovered.
Moreover, the Economic Forecasting Center has estimated the impact of the Covid-19 situation on the Thai economy on the hypothesis of several stages from a soft lockdown to a hard lockdown of one month, two months, and three months respectively.
Based on the hypothesis, the situation control, or lockdown, would affect the economy from 1.01 to 6.02 billion per month, resulting in negative GDP from 0.63-3.75 percent during the first quarter as well as increasing household debt.
However, if the government was able to inject money to support the national economy with the amount of 2 to 3 billion baht and was able to control the situation with no less than three months, the Thai economy stability would slightly recover.
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