National –
The Thailand-based Kasikorn Research Center assessed this year’s Songkran tourism spending to be not much different from last year, driven by several factors both internal and external. Meanwhile, a second major organization, the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, predicted possibly the worst Songkran in a decade and a year-over-year drop.
Kasikorn Research Center reported yesterday, April 8th, about the Thai economy which is expected to slightly improve during the Songkran/Water festival consequential to the CCSA’s relaxation of certain regulations. However, the report pointed out that from 9th-12th April, we might see only 4.6 million domestic travelers or only a 2.2% higher rate compared to Songkran last year. The research center claimed that this was significantly affected by a continual higher cost of living in Thailand and some still in-effect government regulations that limited people’s spending potential regardless of the business operators’ persuasive promotions.
The total revenue during Songkran is expected to be roughly only a 1.2% increase compared to last year, which is roughly flat.
Meanwhile, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce predicted a 5% decrease year-over-year for Songkran spending, driven by higher fuel, food, and other expenses. This could be the weakest Songkran in a decade, not counting 2020 when Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions completely canceled the festival, Thailand’s biggest holiday. Overall, spending is predicted to be billions less than in 2019, the last full unrestricted Songkran, about a 22% drop.
Both organizations pointed to several factors that impact both domestic and international tourism, listed below, that lead to the negative or lackluster predictions:
-Higher costs of living on fuel, food, etc.
-Fear of Covid-19 cases still being high in Thailand, concern for the welfare of the elderly and vulnerable
-Bans on “fun” events that attract many tourists like water fights, water splashing, foam parties, powder, a blanket alcohol ban at all Songkran events, most big concerts and festivals, etc. These bans, especially in popular tourism hubs like Phuket, Chiang Mai, Pattaya, and parts of Bangkok, also will severely hurt the hotel industry and other businesses.
-Strict rules for events that can take place such as being triple vaccinated, ATK testing, capacity limits, etc.
-Impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war.
-Covid-19 restrictions on international travel like Test and Go and Thailand Pass.
The Thai government, meanwhile, has continually stated that bans on the world-famous water fights, alcohol, and crackdowns on parties and the entertainment industry would not heavily affect tourism and claimed that many tourists would still be excited to see religious and ceremonial events. It appears, however, that the finance sector disagrees.
Are you surprised by the negative predictions? Tell us in the comments below!
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